Summation

Where are the raves?

Take a look at the Rants and Raves section on Craigslist.   Guess what???? -- there aren't a lot of raves.   Just rants.  And more rants.  It should be called "Rants and more rants."   how come no one wants to say nice things about their neighbor, the cashier at Starbucks, or the girl they went on a date with?

James Currier pointed this out to me and it got me curious -- is this becoming increasing true?

More and more on the Internet, the microphone goes to the person that can make the nastiest comment, be the meanest, be the bigger gossiper.   And worse are the anonymous comments ... often all that comes out is bitterness and vitriol.   

Until then, I'll be waiting eagerly for the new "raves and more raves" section on the web ...

The "time problem" with being helpful

Continuing on the theme that you can buy time, I got the following mail from a friend of mine today (names and locations obscured to protect the innocent):

I wonder if I can ask your advice on something (which, admittedly, will be somewhat ironic).

For the past few months, I’ve noticed I field (as I’m sure you do as well which is why I’m reaching out to you) about 10 requests a week from people who want (a) general career advice (b) help marketing their new startup or blog or (c) an actual job in new media/traditional media/press/etc.

Everyone wants to meet (a) for lunch [which is impossible because of work commitments and meetings all day], (b) for drinks [also impossible unless I let this interfere, in a big way, with social plans] or (c) for brunch/coffee/drinks/etc. on the weekend.

At first I took calls during the week, but that is no longer an option because of work.  For the past 3 months, I’ve pushed everything to the weekend days.  But for weeks upon weeks I’ve found myself in back to back meetings all day, every day, giving marketing and job advice Saturdays and Sundays.

So, I’m not sure how to handle this and wonder if you have any advice. 

I realize I personally would never be even close to where we are without the unending, brilliant and generous advice of people like you and other incredibly busy people. But I also realize that working all day during the week, then giving marketing and business advice every weekend, is not sustainable. I would really love and appreciate any advice (and sorry to burden you with this!)

I think we all go through this.   the bad news is -- there is no good answer.   But there are time hacks to fit helping people into your life. More in this on a future post …

hiring continues to be obsolete

Keith Rabois at Slide and Mark Organ turned me on to this great essay by Paul Graham:
http://www.paulgraham.com/hiring.html

(it is long but really worth reading … especially if you agonizing about your next career move).

I have never met Paul Graham but I am extreme impressed with his writing.   

2012 Predictions

I recently went to a retreat where they asked all the participants to make a non-obvious prediction for 2012.   here are the ones I submitted:

Math and number puzzles will overtake crosswords … reminding America of when salsa overtook ketchup.   

The legal drinking age in the U.S. will be 18 again causing teenagers to become utterly sober and move, en masse, to Saudi Arabia … where drinking will be cool again because it is illegal there. 

Every major presidential candidate will support gay marriage … to show their solidarity the Republican nominee and Democratic nominee will marry their daughters to each other.    

2011 is the coldest year on record … global macro hedge funds make a killing investing in manufacturers of leg warmers.

How common is adultery?

In the Economist a few weeks ago there was a review of a book about different nation's notions about adultery.   According to the book the country with the highest percentage of males committing adultery is Togo (37%) and the two countries with the least adulterous males are Australia (2.5%) and Switzerland (3%).

In the study, the percentage of men are those who are married and who have cheated on their spouse in the last 12 months.   It was determined through extensive surveying and might be flawed.   

The numbers seem scary.   Take Australia, the "best" nation with only 2.5% of men committing adultery in the last 12 months.   Is it me, or does 2.5% seem alarming?   Imagine, in the very best place for fidelity in world, 1 in 40 men still cheat every year!  Really unbelievable.   I would hope it would be more like 1 in 200.   am I just naive?   

math and shakespeare

I was at a dinner party not too long ago and one of the other attendees did something very interesting ... he chastised one of the guests for not really knowing Shakespeare.   Then, a few minutes later, this same chastiser was bragging about how little he cared for math and science -- he said other people could focus on that.

Is Shakespeare really more important than math and science?
Maybe.

Too often people think what they know is REALLY important and what their ignorant of is something easily done by others.

As the dinner progressed, I asked a question to the other nine guests: you roll 5 dice, what is the probability of getting at least one four.   Turns out, no one knew.   Now granted, it is actually a hard question for someone that hasn't studied probability ... the smattering of Stanford B-school and Harvard Law School grads hadn't studied math and statistics in college like I had.   And one can get through life fine without knowing simple probability … just like many get through life without knowing Shakespeare.   

Whether it is the Monty Hall problem or the Birthday problem, people have a real lack of understand of their chance of something.   Maybe that explains gambling.   Or playing credit card roulette.   it seems math and science is quite important for any learned person to master.

Now I don’t know much about Shakespeare … but it isn’t something I brag about.   In fact, I see that as one of my deficiencies that I'm not proud of.   So I get taken aback when people feel that what they know is so much more important than what they don't know.   

Do you trust your gut?

Most people trust their gut. I think it is because one's gut is usually right. On a technical level, a gut is a collection of prejudices, biases, and pattern matching -- and that turns out generally to be correct. So your gut is usually right (certainly more than 50% of the time). But 100%?

So … should you trust your gut?

I think some people have an unusually good gut and they should trust their gut. But my guess is that most people think they have a better gut then they do.

I personally don’t trust my gut … especially not with people. I often find that when I meet someone I judge them wrong. I'm an optimist and I often over-estimate people. Sometimes I under-estimate people and am pleasantly surprised.

Hiring is an area that I never trust my gut. In fact, most of my bad hires in past have been because I went with my gut instead of taking the time to use real analytics.

And while I love the book Blink (by Malcolm Gladwell), I don’t think the split-second decisions are always the best ones. Especially on non-obvious things. For instance, I love math and probability problems (especially the Monty Hall problem) -- and "gut" answer is almost always wrong. In the case of the Monty Hall problem, almost everyone I have ever asked gives the wrong answer (there are only two choices -- so it is weird that 98% of people pick the wrong choice) … and when I ask them why they are picking their choice, they usually answer "gut."

That is not to say there is no place for a gut … there is likely a good place if you truly have a good one. But for an analytical person like me, rock beats scissors and brain beats gut.

Social networks tackle marijuana delivery

This issue of Forbes has a fascinating article on how marijuana sales rings are run and how they elude detection and prosecution. The article is very interesting from a social network perspective.

One stat I found quite amazing is:

Most of the marijuana was grown in dozens of private homes across the metropolitan area (including Connecticut and New Jersey), primarily in basements. A typical grower would cultivate 300 to 400 plants, which were harvested up to four times a year, yielding 30 to 40 pounds at each cut, worth $150,000 to $200,000 wholesale.

Wow. I'm not sure how much room 300 marijuana plants … but if you could fit that in your basement and clear $150k/quarter (tax free), that's serious cash. Even if it is only 20% of that, it is still over $100k/year tax free … all for just gardening. (though I imagine the start-up costs (the seeds, special soil, artificial lights, etc.) might be relatively expensive.

I haven't ever seen the show Weeds -- is this what it is about?

My question, if it is really this easy to make over $100k/year tax-free and part-time, why don’t more people do it?

One could argue that it is a testament to our society that people respect the law.

Fascinating…

Why Specialists Are Grumpy and Generalists Are Happy

good post from Ben Casnocha:
Why Specialists Are Grumpy and Generalists Are Happy

Spending patterns of youth predict adult money management

My friend Rebecca Wahl has a theory that how one spends money as a kid is a really good predictor of how one will treat money as an adult.

More:
The theory goes that if you are fast and loose with money (spend it before you got it) when you're 6, you'll likely do the same when you're 36. and if you're putting it all away in your piggy bank when you're little, you'll likely be adding to your Charles Schwab account when you're a bit bigger.

Or so the theory goes.

I tested the theory out in a very unscientific way by asking 20 people and the results generally to prove Rebecca's point.

However, does that mean that people's personalities are set in stone from a very young age? Can someone change his personality?